Wow, it only took five months! Here is how the AP came to their conclusion:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House.

Campaigning on an insistent call for change, Obama outlasted former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a historic race that sparked record turnout in primary after primary, yet exposed deep racial divisions within the party.

The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day.

Now John McCain can get to the business of convincing Latino voters to support him as he abandons his immigration reform bill, women as he pushes the next Alito for the Supreme Court, working families as he votes against SCHIP and tries to eliminate the minimum wage and veterans as he comes up with ever more creative reasons to reject the GI Bill.